LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record at Stadion Kolos: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Kolos this season.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for LNZ Cherkasy, 1.70 for Dnipro-1 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: LNZ Cherkasy 0W, Dnipro-1 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dnipro-1 half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 43% versus Dnipro-1 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 48% | Dnipro-1 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 xG and Dnipro-1 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.801 / defence 1.262 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.068 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.185. Data: 19 LNZ Cherkasy games / 50 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 17% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 57%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Dnipro-1 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Dnipro-1 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Mar 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 17% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 / Dnipro-1 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.801 / def 1.262 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.068 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Dnipro-1 xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 17% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 0W | Draws 1 | Dnipro-1 0W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.07x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 19/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
17%
6.00
27%
3.75
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.60
Dnipro-1 xG
6.00
17%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
3%
29.65
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.60 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 7W 7D 7L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1's form line: 12W 5D 4L from 21 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L). That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 6W 2D 1L from 9 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.38 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 games (1.33 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 12W 5D 4L in their last 21 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 0.89 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.22 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
0
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1?
From 2 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2024, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 Dnipro-1.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 44%, Dnipro-1 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 33% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 44%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 33% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 21, as LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 xG and Dnipro-1 1.60 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 19/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 17% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 57%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 48%, Dnipro-1 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.