FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv host Kudrivka at in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 6W 2D 2L at — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Kudrivka — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Kudrivka have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.50 PPG, Kudrivka 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for Kudrivka and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 34% versus Kudrivka 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 29% | Kudrivka 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 2.05 xG and Kudrivka 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.279 / defence 0.740 | Kudrivka attack 0.854 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.099. FC Kharkiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 FC Kharkiv games / 35 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 68% | Draw 22% | Kudrivka 10%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Kudrivka 10.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Kharkiv (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | Kudrivka 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 68% | Draw 22% | Kudrivka 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 45% | xG FC Kharkiv 2.05 / Kudrivka 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.279 / def 0.740 | Kudrivka attack 0.854 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Kudrivka xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 May 2027.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 68% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka?
Record (2 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 1 | Kudrivka 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Kudrivka's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
68%
1.47
22%
4.57
10%
9.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.74
0.69
Kudrivka xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
9.72
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
1%
75.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.69 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 16W 12D 7L from 35 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kudrivka, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 17L across 35 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kudrivka heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kudrivka's away record stands at 1W 5D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.03 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Kudrivka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 16W 12D 7L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 7W 11D 17L in their last 35 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Kudrivka away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.82 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.47 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
0
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Kudrivka have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 24%, Kudrivka 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for FC Kharkiv and 35% for Kudrivka.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Kudrivka in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 47% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 35% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Kudrivka tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.