Kryvbas KR 4-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Livyi Bereh travel to Stadion Hirnyk to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 May 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hirnyk this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Livyi Bereh have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kryvbas KR at 0.90 PPG versus Livyi Bereh's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kryvbas KR, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Kryvbas KR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kryvbas KR in-play and half-time data (30 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (30 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kryvbas KR 37% | Livyi Bereh 27%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 33% | Livyi Bereh 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.33 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.073 / defence 1.042 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.667 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.079. Data: 56 Kryvbas KR games / 26 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 29% | Livyi Bereh 21%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Livyi Bereh 4.76. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 50% | Livyi Bereh 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 29% | Livyi Bereh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.33 / Livyi Bereh 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.073 / def 1.042 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.667 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Livyi Bereh xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 7 May 2025 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh?
Kryvbas KR 4 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 50% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh?
Record (1 meetings): Kryvbas KR 1W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.07) and Livyi Bereh's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.42
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.08
0.75
Livyi Bereh xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.75 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 7D 11L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Livyi Bereh sit at 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (7W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 6W 3D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Livyi Bereh have taken 0.85 points per game from 13 outings (3W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.70 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 27%.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.62 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2025, when Kryvbas KR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Livyi Bereh specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh?
From 3 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kryvbas KR 1-1 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kryvbas KR 46% BTTS, Livyi Bereh 15%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Kryvbas KR and 23% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 31%; Livyi Bereh in 69%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 15% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 23% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Livyi Bereh 4-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.33 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.75 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.67 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 50% | Draw 29% | Livyi Bereh 21%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 33%, Livyi Bereh 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (30 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (30 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.