Dnipro-1 1-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host FC Kharkiv at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dnipro Arena, Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dnipro-1 1.50 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Dnipro-1 have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while FC Kharkiv have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Dnipro-1 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dnipro-1 and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 53% versus FC Kharkiv 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 61% | FC Kharkiv 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.11 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.118 / defence 0.993 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.779 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.218. Data: 36 Dnipro-1 games / 37 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 29%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | FC Kharkiv 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 70% | FC Kharkiv 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Dnipro-1 1.11 / FC Kharkiv 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.118 / def 0.993 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.779 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC Kharkiv xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Dnipro-1 1 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 38% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
Record (3 meetings): Dnipro-1 3W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
38%
2.63
33%
3.05
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.05
0.94
FC Kharkiv xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.94 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Dnipro-1 have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 23W 7D 6L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 9W 15D 12L from 36 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dnipro-1 have posted 2.00 PPG from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 9D 5L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.81 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 23W 7D 6L in their last 36 games (2.11 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 15D 12L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dnipro-1's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dnipro-1
1
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 4, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2024, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 65%, FC Kharkiv 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Dnipro-1) and 24% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 41%; FC Kharkiv in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 29% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 24% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dnipro-1 edge out FC Kharkiv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat FC Kharkiv 1-0 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.11 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.94 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.78 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 38% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 29%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 61%, FC Kharkiv 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.