Minai 0-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Minai at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Minai and Obolon'-Brovar meet at Stadion Mynai in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Minai have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Mynai this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Obolon'-Brovar (all games): 1W 3D 4L across 8 Premier League outings this term — 0.75 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Minai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Obolon'-Brovar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 75% versus Obolon'-Brovar 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Minai 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.17 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.891 / defence 1.278 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.679 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.187. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Minai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Minai games / 8 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 38% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 31%. Fair-value odds: Minai 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Obolon'-Brovar 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Minai at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Minai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Minai 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 38% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Minai 1.17 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.891 / def 1.278 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.679 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Minai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Minai 0 - 1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 38% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Minai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Minai and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Obolon'-Brovar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Minai and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Minai (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Minai's attack rating (0.89) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.68x) against Minai's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Minai Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.16
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Minai xG
Total xG
2.20
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Minai and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Minai and 1.03 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Minai come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 3D 5L for 0.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.38 PPG for Minai against 0.75 for Obolon'-Brovar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Minai's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Minai are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Minai have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Obolon'-Brovar in 25%.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Obolon'-Brovar's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.50 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Minai or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Minai have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Minai
1
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 2 meetings on record, Minai have won 0, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Minai and Obolon'-Brovar?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 75%, Obolon'-Brovar 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Minai) and 25% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Minai's recent matches and 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Minai vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Minai's recent games and 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat Minai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Minai 0-1 at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.17 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Minai fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.68 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 38% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 31%, with Minai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Obolon'-Brovar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 50%, Obolon'-Brovar 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Minai 0.38 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.