Desna 2-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Desna at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Desna vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Desna welcome Dnipro-1 to Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv in Premier League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 3 games, Desna have gone 3W 0D 0L — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dnipro-1 — last 3 games: 2W 1D 0L — 2.33 PPG. Last five: D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Desna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.67 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 2.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Desna in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 0% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 33% versus Dnipro-1 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Desna 67% | Dnipro-1 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 1.42 xG and Dnipro-1 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 1.189 / defence 0.863 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.134 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.221. Data: built from Desna's last 3 games and Dnipro-1's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Desna 41% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 31%. Fair-value odds: Desna 2.43 | Draw 3.60 | Dnipro-1 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Desna at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Desna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Desna's last 3 games and Dnipro-1's last 3 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Desna 33% (last 3 games) | Dnipro-1 67% (last 3 games).
The Poisson model's sample (Desna 3 games, Dnipro-1 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 4 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 41% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Desna 1.42 / Dnipro-1 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 1.189 / def 0.863 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.134 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Desna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Desna xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Dnipro-1 xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Desna vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does Desna vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Desna vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What was the final score in Desna vs Dnipro-1?
Desna 2 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Desna vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Desna vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 4) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 41% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Desna and Dnipro-1 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Desna vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Desna's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Desna's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Desna's last 3 games and Dnipro-1's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.60
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Desna xG
Total xG
2.61
1.20
Dnipro-1 xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Desna vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Desna and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Desna and 1.20 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Desna have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 3W 0D 0L record — W-W-W across the most recent five.
Dnipro-1's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W.
Put side by side, Desna are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dnipro-1.
Goals in Recent Form
Desna are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Desna's scoring rate against Dnipro-1's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Dnipro-1 in 67%.
Defensively: Desna have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
Desna (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Desna
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
❓ Desna vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are Desna and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Desna or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 1 H2H match we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 14 August 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Desna
0
Draws
0
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Desna vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Dnipro-1?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Desna have won 1, Dnipro-1 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2021: Desna 2-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Desna and Dnipro-1?
Desna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Desna's games tend to start slowly — only 0% have a goal by half-time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 33%, Dnipro-1 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Desna and 100% for Dnipro-1. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Desna keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Desna vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Desna and Dnipro-1 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Desna's recent matches and 67% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Desna and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Desna's matches and 100% of Dnipro-1's.
Do Desna and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Desna's recent matches and 100% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Desna edge out Dnipro-1 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna beat Dnipro-1 2-1 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 1.42 xG and Dnipro-1 1.20 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 1.19 / defence 0.86 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Desna 41% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 31%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 67%, Dnipro-1 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Desna arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dnipro-1 managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.