Dnipro-1 2-1 FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Mariupol at 38%, yet in-form Dnipro-1 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees FC Mariupol travel to Dnipro Arena to take on Dnipro-1. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Mariupol stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Mariupol have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.14 xG and FC Mariupol 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 0.962 / defence 1.150 | FC Mariupol attack 0.788 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.326. Data: 2 Dnipro-1 games / 2 FC Mariupol games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 34% | Draw 28% | FC Mariupol 38%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | FC Mariupol 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Mariupol at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dnipro-1 (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Mariupol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 34% | Draw 28% | FC Mariupol 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Dnipro-1 1.14 / FC Mariupol 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 0.962 / def 1.150 | FC Mariupol attack 0.788 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: FC Mariupol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Mariupol xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol?
Dnipro-1 2 - 1 FC Mariupol.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol part of?
Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 34% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Mariupol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W. FC Mariupol (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (0.96) and FC Mariupol's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Mariupol's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Mariupol Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.56
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.34
1.20
FC Mariupol xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.20 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Mariupol, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Mariupol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol in 100%.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Early Season
FC Mariupol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Dnipro-1 or FC Mariupol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Mariupol in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol?
From 2 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2021, when FC Mariupol 0-3 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play FC Mariupol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dnipro-1's games and 100% of FC Mariupol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dnipro-1 vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Dnipro-1's matches and 50% of FC Mariupol's.
Do Dnipro-1 and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dnipro-1 defy the odds to beat FC Mariupol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat FC Mariupol 2-1 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.14 xG and FC Mariupol 1.20 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dnipro-1 beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against FC Mariupol attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 34% | Draw 28% | FC Mariupol 38%, with FC Mariupol to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Dnipro-1 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 100%, FC Mariupol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.