Chornomorets 1-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Obolon'-Brovar at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 October 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Chornomorets) versus 0.90 (Obolon'-Brovar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chornomorets, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chornomorets 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 42% | Obolon'-Brovar 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.38 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.754 / defence 1.083 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.658 / defence 1.493. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.145. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.493 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Chornomorets games / 38 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 49% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 21%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.76. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chornomorets are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 49% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Chornomorets 1.38 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.754 / def 1.083 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.658 / def 1.493 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Obolon'-Brovar xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Chornomorets 1 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 49% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (2 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 1 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.75) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.39
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.19
0.82
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.82 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 3D 23L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 0.89 PPG from 38 outings (7W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 1.03 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chornomorets's home form reads 8W 1D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 0.63 points per game from 19 outings (2W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chornomorets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.58 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 29%.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 12W 3D 23L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 7W 13D 18L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.32 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Chornomorets's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
2
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Chornomorets 1-1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chornomorets 37% BTTS, Obolon'-Brovar 32%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Chornomorets) and 42% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 32% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 32% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Chornomorets's recent games and 42% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chornomorets edge out Obolon'-Brovar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.38 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.82 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.66 / defence 1.49, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 49% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 21%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 42%, Obolon'-Brovar 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.03 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.