Trat FC 2-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trat FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chonburi FC make the trip to Trat Provincial Central Stadium to face Trat FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chonburi FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chonburi FC have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.35 xG and Chonburi FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Chonburi FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.218. Data: 0 Trat FC games / 30 Chonburi FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trat FC 37% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Chonburi FC 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 37% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Trat FC 1.35 / Chonburi FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Chonburi FC attack 0.964 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Chonburi FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Trat FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Trat FC 2 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Trat FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Trat FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 37% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trat FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trat FC and Chonburi FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.85) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.96x) against Trat FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.87
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Trat FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.35
Chonburi FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.35 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Pre-Season
Chonburi FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
1
Draws
1
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Chonburi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 0, Chonburi FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2024, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Trat FC.
Who has won more matches between Trat FC and Chonburi FC?
Chonburi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Trat FC and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Trat FC and Chonburi FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.35 xG and Chonburi FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Chonburi FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 37% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 37%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.