Sukhothai FC 0-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sukhothai FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 November 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 2W 2D 2L at Thung Talay Luang Stadium — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Sukhothai FC have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 38% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sukhothai FC 23% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.08 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.675 / defence 0.974 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.877 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.205. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Sukhothai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Sukhothai FC games / 43 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 36% | Draw 31% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 17% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 36% | Draw 31% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.08 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.675 / def 0.974 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.877 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 36% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
36%
2.81
31%
3.19
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.11
1.03
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.03 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 4W 5D 4L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 2W 2D 9L from 13 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sukhothai FC are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 0D 6L from 6 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 0.77 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 4 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 1, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 17%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sukhothai FC) and 67% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya finished level at 0-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.08 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.03 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Nong Bua Pitchaya landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.68 / defence 0.97 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 36% | Draw 31% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 33%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 23%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sukhothai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.