Rayong FC 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet at WHA Rayong Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rayong FC's record over their last 4 games: 1W 1D 2L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 2D 0L across their last 4 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Rayong FC — key trading statistics (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 50% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.786 / defence 1.246 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.914 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.748 / away 1.276. Rayong FC's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Rayong FC's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output up. Data: built from Rayong FC's last 4 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 4.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 33% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.99 | Draw 3.37 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayong FC 50% (last 4 games) | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100% (last 4 games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 33% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Rayong FC 1.38 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.786 / def 1.246 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.914 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.748 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC FAQs
What time does Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Rayong FC 1 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 33% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rayong FC's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.91x) against Rayong FC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Rayong FC's last 4 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
33%
2.99
30%
3.37
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.45
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.45 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Rayong FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayong FC.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayong FC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100%.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Rayong FC (Home) vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayong FC
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
❓ Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Form FAQs
What form are Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 25 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayong FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayong FC have won 0, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 February 2026: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Rayong FC, 100% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rayong FC) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayong FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rayong FC's games and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rayong FC's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 75% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Rayong FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 33% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.