Ratchaburi 2-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Port FC (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Port FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 3 for Port FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 50% and Port FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 50% | Port FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.69 xG and Port FC 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.137 / defence 1.080 | Port FC attack 1.287 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.266. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Ratchaburi games / 34 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 35% | Draw 27% | Port FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 35% | Draw 27% | Port FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG Ratchaburi 1.69 / Port FC 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.137 / def 1.080 | Port FC attack 1.287 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Port FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Port FC xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Port FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Ratchaburi 2 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Port FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 35% chance of winning, Port FC a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Ratchaburi and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Record (6 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 2 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.68
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.45
1.76
Port FC xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
6%
16.63
7%
14.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.76 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 12W 7D 15L from 34 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 5L across 34 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 9W 2D 6L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 7W 8D 2L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.53 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 74%.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while Port FC have gone 20W 9D 5L in their last 34 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Port FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.71 PPG; Port FC away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ratchaburi at 65%, Port FC at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ratchaburi and 71% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ratchaburi's games and 82% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ratchaburi's matches and 71% of Port FC's.
Do Ratchaburi and Port FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Port FC in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Port FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 5, as Ratchaburi and Port FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.69 xG and Port FC 1.76 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.14 / defence 1.08 against Port FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.86, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 35% | Draw 27% | Port FC 38%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 50%, Port FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.