Rayong FC 2-2 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayong FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Nakhon Pathom travel to WHA Rayong Stadium to take on Rayong FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayong FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 games at WHA Rayong Stadium this term (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Pathom have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Rayong FC are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Nakhon Pathom in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayong FC 62% versus Nakhon Pathom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 54% | Nakhon Pathom 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.68 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.831 / defence 1.105 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.851 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.133. Data: 13 Rayong FC games / 42 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 49% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Pathom 21%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Nakhon Pathom 4.76. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 71% | Nakhon Pathom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 49% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Pathom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Rayong FC 1.68 / Nakhon Pathom 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.831 / def 1.105 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.851 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Nakhon Pathom xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Rayong FC 2 - 2 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 49% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rayong FC's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.34
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.74
1.07
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
4%
25.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.07 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 10L across 13 games — 0.38 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rayong FC by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Pathom heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Pathom's away record stands at 0W 1D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rayong FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 0.69 scored and 2.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 2D 10L in their last 13 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.29 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom?
From 2 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-2 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 71%, Nakhon Pathom 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Rayong FC) and 71% (Nakhon Pathom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Pathom in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rayong FC's games and 57% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Rayong FC's matches and 71% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Rayong FC and Nakhon Pathom drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.68 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 49% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Pathom 21%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 54%, Nakhon Pathom 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 0.92 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.