Rayong FC 0-3 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Bangkok United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rayong FC welcome Bangkok United to WHA Rayong Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 6 matches, Rayong FC stand at 1W 2D 3L — 0.83 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings (17%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Rayong FC have posted 0W 2D 1L from their last 3 home games — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bangkok United — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bangkok United away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bangkok United's 1.80 PPG return is 0.97 points per game ahead of Rayong FC's 0.83 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Rayong FC's last 3 home games and Bangkok United's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Bangkok United trading profile (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 67% and Bangkok United 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 50% | Bangkok United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.21 xG and Bangkok United 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.736 / defence 1.229 | Bangkok United attack 1.183 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.188. Rayong FC's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Rayong FC's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bangkok United's projected output up. Data: built from Rayong FC's last 6 games and Bangkok United's last 36.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 24% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 46%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 4.25 | Draw 3.29 | Bangkok United 2.17. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.21 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bangkok United at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bangkok United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rayong FC's last 3 home games and Bangkok United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayong FC 100% (last 3 home games) | Bangkok United 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 7 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 24% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Rayong FC 1.21 / Bangkok United 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.736 / def 1.229 | Bangkok United attack 1.183 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Bangkok United xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayong FC vs Bangkok United FAQs
What time does Rayong FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Rayong FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Rayong FC 0 - 3 Bangkok United.
Where is Rayong FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Rayong FC vs Bangkok United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 7) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 24% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rayong FC and Bangkok United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rayong FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rayong FC's attack at 0.74x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rayong FC's last 6 games and Bangkok United's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
24%
4.25
30%
3.29
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.73
Bangkok United xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
4%
23.90
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayong FC vs Bangkok United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.73 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rayong FC come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Bangkok United sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Bangkok United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rayong FC's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across their last 3 home games, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Bangkok United have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 3 away games (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bangkok United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rayong FC are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Bangkok United in 67%.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Bangkok United
Early Season
Rayong FC (Home) vs Bangkok United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayong FC
Early Season
Bangkok United
Early Season
❓ Rayong FC vs Bangkok United Form FAQs
What form are Rayong FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Sep 2024, when Bangkok United won Rayong FC 0-3 Bangkok United.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
2
Draws
2
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayong FC vs Bangkok United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Bangkok United?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayong FC have won 0, Bangkok United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Rayong FC 1-1 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 100%, Bangkok United at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Rayong FC) and 67% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayong FC vs Bangkok United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayong FC and Bangkok United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Rayong FC's games and 67% of Bangkok United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rayong FC and Bangkok United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rayong FC's recent games and 67% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Bangkok United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 67% of Bangkok United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bangkok United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Rayong FC 0-3 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.21 xG and Bangkok United 1.73 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rayong FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bangkok United outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against Bangkok United attack 1.18 / defence 0.93, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 24% | Draw 30% | Bangkok United 46%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 50%, Bangkok United 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Bangkok United's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.