Chiangrai United 3-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Muangthong United at Singha Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Singha Chiangrai Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Muangthong United's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 2 for Muangthong United and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Muangthong United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 48% versus Muangthong United 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 43% | Muangthong United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.01 xG and Muangthong United 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.685 / defence 1.048 | Muangthong United attack 0.925 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.152. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Chiangrai United games / 42 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 35%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Muangthong United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chiangrai United 30% | Muangthong United 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Chiangrai United 1.01 / Muangthong United 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.685 / def 1.048 | Muangthong United attack 0.925 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Muangthong United xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Chiangrai United 3 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 30% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chiangrai United and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
Record (6 meetings): Chiangrai United 3W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.69x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
30%
3.32
34%
2.90
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.13
1.12
Muangthong United xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.12 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 42 games, going 9W 12D 21L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.71 PPG from 42 outings (21W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chiangrai United's home form reads 4W 7D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.90 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 67%.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 9W 12D 21L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Muangthong United away?
Muangthong United's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.00 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Muangthong United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 47%, Muangthong United 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Chiangrai United) and 68% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Chiangrai United's games and 79% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 68% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Muangthong United 3-1 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.01 xG and Muangthong United 1.12 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.69 / defence 1.05 against Muangthong United attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 30% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 35%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Chiangrai United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 43%, Muangthong United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.