Ratchaburi vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 44%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Port FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 May 2027, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ratchaburi, 4 for Port FC and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 58% versus Port FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 58% | Port FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.65 xG and Port FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / defence 0.869 | Port FC attack 1.047 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 36 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 26% | Port FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 26% | Port FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Ratchaburi 1.65 / Port FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / def 0.869 | Port FC attack 1.047 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Port FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Port FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 2 May 2027 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Port FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 44% chance of winning, Port FC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ratchaburi and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Record (10 meetings): Ratchaburi 2W | Draws 4 | Port FC 4W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.87
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.97
1.32
Port FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.32 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 22W 5D 9L from 36 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 6D 7L across 36 games — 2.08 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.97 PPG, Port FC on 2.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 9W 2D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.03 scored and 0.83 conceded. Ratchaburi's scoring rate against Port FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Port FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 22W 5D 9L in their last 36 games (1.97 PPG), while Port FC have gone 23W 6D 7L in their last 36 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Port FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.94 PPG; Port FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Port FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 47%, Port FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ratchaburi) and 41% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Port FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 47% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 41% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Port FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Port FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.