Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Ayutthaya FC at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Ratchaburi have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 2 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 60% versus Ayutthaya FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 57% | Ayutthaya FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.42 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / defence 0.869 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ayutthaya FC's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ayutthaya FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 37 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 34% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Ayutthaya FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ayutthaya FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 34% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Ratchaburi 1.42 / Ayutthaya FC 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / def 0.869 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Ayutthaya FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 May 2027 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 34% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (3 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 2W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.80
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.95
1.53
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.53 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 22W 6D 9L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ayutthaya FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 5D 4L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.22 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 22W 6D 9L in their last 37 games (1.95 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.89 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ayutthaya FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
2
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC?
Ayutthaya FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 50%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ratchaburi) and 44% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 44% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.