Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Sisaket Provincial Stadium to face Rasi Salai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rasi Salai United have collected 0.20 PPG across 5 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ratchaburi are the stronger side — 2.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Rasi Salai United register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Ratchaburi in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Rasi Salai United half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rasi Salai United 100% and Ratchaburi 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rasi Salai United 80% | Ratchaburi 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rasi Salai United 1.22 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rasi Salai United attack 0.855 / defence 1.138 | Ratchaburi attack 1.081 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Data: 5 Rasi Salai United games / 35 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rasi Salai United 28% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 45%. Fair-value odds: Rasi Salai United 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 2.22. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rasi Salai United 100% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sisaket Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rasi Salai United 28% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Rasi Salai United 1.22 / Ratchaburi 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Rasi Salai United attack 0.855 / def 1.138 | Ratchaburi attack 1.081 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Rasi Salai United xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Sisaket Provincial Stadium.
Where is Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sisaket Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Rasi Salai United a 28% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rasi Salai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rasi Salai United and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rasi Salai United and Ratchaburi in?
Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rasi Salai United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.08x) against Rasi Salai United's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
28%
3.52
26%
3.79
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Rasi Salai United xG
Total xG
2.80
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rasi Salai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Rasi Salai United and 1.59 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rasi Salai United come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 1D 4L for 0.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.80 PPG clear of Rasi Salai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rasi Salai United are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rasi Salai United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 60%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rasi Salai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Rasi Salai United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rasi Salai United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 40%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rasi Salai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Rasi Salai United, 60% for Ratchaburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rasi Salai United and 60% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rasi Salai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rasi Salai United play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Rasi Salai United's games and 60% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rasi Salai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rasi Salai United's matches and 60% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Rasi Salai United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Rasi Salai United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.