Port FC 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 74% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Port FC) versus 1.10 (Nong Bua Pitchaya). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Port FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed just 0 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Port FC winning.
The historical record gives Port FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 64% and Nong Bua Pitchaya 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Port FC 57% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.87 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.142 / defence 0.891 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.985 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.133. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Port FC games / 14 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 74% | Draw 17% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 9%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.87 / 0.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.87 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 74% | Draw 17% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 61% | xG Port FC 2.87 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.142 / def 0.891 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.985 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Port FC (74%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
61%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Port FC 2 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 74% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 1 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W.
What form are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.14) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 3-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
74%
1.34
17%
5.96
9%
11.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.87
0.99
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.34
74%
Home win
5.96
17%
Draw
11.43
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
6%
17.69
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Port FC and 0.99 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 5D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.86 scored and 2.43 conceded. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking output running into Port FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Port FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Port FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Port FC
1
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Port FC at 67%, Nong Bua Pitchaya at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Port FC and 83% for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Port FC's games and 83% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Port FC's matches and 83% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's.
Do Port FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.87 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.99 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Port FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.98 / defence 1.51, drawn from 43/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 74% | Draw 17% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 9%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 57%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.