Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Port FC lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 3–2 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 57% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.68 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.211 / defence 0.973 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.752 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.241. Data: 42 Port FC games / 42 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Port FC 1.68 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.211 / def 0.973 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.752 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Port FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC 2 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 55% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.21) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.75x) against Port FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.02
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.58
0.91
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
4%
26.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Port FC and 0.91 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 15W 13D 14L from 42 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 18L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Port FC against 1.19 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 10W 5D 4L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 15W 13D 14L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Port FC or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Port FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 6, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 47%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Port FC) and 53% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Port FC's recent matches and 58% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Port FC's recent games and 53% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.68 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.91 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 55% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.38 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.