Pattani vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattani and Ratchaburi meet at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattani's home record at Rainbow Stadium: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ratchaburi are 0.90 PPG clear of Pattani in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Pattani — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattani 57% and Ratchaburi 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 71% | Ratchaburi 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.94 xG and Ratchaburi 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.617 / defence 1.033 | Ratchaburi attack 1.309 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Pattani's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Pattani games / 37 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 17% | Draw 23% | Ratchaburi 61%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Ratchaburi 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Pattani 25% | Ratchaburi 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 17% | Draw 23% | Ratchaburi 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Pattani 0.94 / Ratchaburi 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.617 / def 1.033 | Ratchaburi attack 1.309 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Ratchaburi xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Pattani vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Ratchaburi part of?
Pattani vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 17% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pattani and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Ratchaburi in?
Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.62x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.31x) against Pattani's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
17%
6.03
23%
4.36
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.91
1.97
Ratchaburi xG
6.03
17%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
14%
7.17
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
2%
43.25
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Pattani and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Pattani and 1.97 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Pattani have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pattani.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pattani have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattani at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattani at home: 1.00 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.75 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 25%, Ratchaburi 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Pattani and 75% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Pattani's games and 100% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattani vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pattani's matches and 75% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Pattani and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.