Nakhon Pathom 0-3 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 37%, yet in-form Lamphun Warrior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium to face Nakhon Pathom in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Nakhon Pathom are significantly better at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lamphun Warrior are 0.70 PPG clear of Nakhon Pathom in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Pathom lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Nakhon Pathom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 67% and Lamphun Warrior 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 63% | Lamphun Warrior 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.27 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.715 / defence 1.144 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.877 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.121. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Nakhon Pathom games / 43 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 37% | Draw 34% | Lamphun Warrior 30%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Lamphun Warrior 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nakhon Pathom at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 60% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 37% | Draw 34% | Lamphun Warrior 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.27 / Lamphun Warrior 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.715 / def 1.144 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.877 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Lamphun Warrior xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior?
Nakhon Pathom 0 - 3 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 37% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (2 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 1W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.88x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
37%
2.73
34%
2.96
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.39
1.12
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.12 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nakhon Pathom's recent record stands at 9W 12D 22L from 43 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 18L across 43 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 1.14 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nakhon Pathom have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 2W 7D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.40 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 9W 12D 22L in their last 43 games (0.91 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.05 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamphun Warrior won 0-3 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Nakhon Pathom.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 68%, Lamphun Warrior 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Nakhon Pathom and 58% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 53% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 58% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Nakhon Pathom 0-3 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.27 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.12 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.71 / defence 1.14 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 37% | Draw 34% | Lamphun Warrior 30%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Lamphun Warrior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (43 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (43 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.91 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.