Muangthong United 3-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Thunder Dome Stadium to face Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 11 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Muangthong United (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Muangthong United have posted 7W 2D 1L at Thunder Dome Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Pathom's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Muangthong United's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Nakhon Pathom's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Muangthong United lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Muangthong United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Nakhon Pathom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 65% and Nakhon Pathom 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 62% | Nakhon Pathom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.62 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 0.862 / defence 0.902 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.817 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.791 / away 1.155. Data: 40 Muangthong United games / 41 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 53% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Pathom 17%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Nakhon Pathom 5.88. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 30% | Nakhon Pathom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 53% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Pathom 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Muangthong United 1.62 / Nakhon Pathom 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 0.862 / def 0.902 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.817 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.791 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Nakhon Pathom xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 11 November 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Muangthong United 3 - 1 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 53% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (2 meetings): Muangthong United 1W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Muangthong United's attack rating (0.86) and Nakhon Pathom's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.82x) against Muangthong United's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
53%
1.89
30%
3.33
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.47
0.85
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
29.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.85 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 19W 9D 12L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Pathom's form line: 9W 10D 21L from 40 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Muangthong United are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Pathom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Nakhon Pathom have gone 3W 6D 12L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Muangthong United are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.08 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Nakhon Pathom in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 9W 10D 21L in their last 40 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.05 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Nakhon Pathom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nakhon Pathom in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Muangthong United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Muangthong United
1
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 3, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 2-4 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 52%, Nakhon Pathom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Muangthong United) and 62% (Nakhon Pathom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nakhon Pathom in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Muangthong United's games and 67% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Muangthong United's matches and 62% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Muangthong United and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Nakhon Pathom 3-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.62 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.85 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.86 / defence 0.90 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 53% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Pathom 17%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 62%, Nakhon Pathom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (40 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (40 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.