Chonburi FC 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 39%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Prachuap at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Chonburi UTA Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Prachuap — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 2 for Prachuap and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 54% versus Prachuap 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 47% | Prachuap 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.12 xG and Prachuap 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.834 / defence 0.951 | Prachuap attack 0.823 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.164. Data: 57 Chonburi FC games / 57 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Prachuap 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 50% | Prachuap 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Chonburi FC 1.12 / Prachuap 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.834 / def 0.951 | Prachuap attack 0.823 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Prachuap xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap part of?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 39% chance of winning, Prachuap a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chonburi FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Record (5 meetings): Chonburi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.10
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.91
Prachuap xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.91 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 12D 26L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 16W 17D 24L from 57 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.21 PPG, Prachuap on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 3W 10D 15L from 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.32 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 19W 12D 26L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Prachuap away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 3, Prachuap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 46%, Prachuap 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Chonburi FC) and 54% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Prachuap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Chonburi FC's games and 64% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 54% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Chonburi FC and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.12 xG and Prachuap 0.91 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Prachuap attack 0.82 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 47%, Prachuap 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.21 PPG, Prachuap 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.