Chiangmai United 2-0 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Pattaya United at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangmai United vs Pattaya United encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Chiangmai United welcome Pattaya United to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangmai United have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chiangmai United's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 0W 1D 8L from 9 Thai League 1 appearances (0.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Pattaya United — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pattaya United away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pattaya United are 0.60 PPG ahead (0.70 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chiangmai United, 0 for Pattaya United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Chiangmai United winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Chiangmai United in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

Pattaya United in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangmai United 58% versus Pattaya United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 53% | Pattaya United 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 0.79 xG and Pattaya United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.708 / defence 1.629 | Pattaya United attack 0.547 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.120. Chiangmai United's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Chiangmai United games / 19 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 28% | Draw 33% | Pattaya United 39%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Pattaya United 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Chiangmai United's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pattaya United at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattaya United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangmai United 56% | Pattaya United 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights