Buriram United 6-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Ratchaburi meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Buriram United's 2.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ratchaburi's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Buriram United have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Ratchaburi managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with Buriram United winning.
The historical record gives Buriram United a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Buriram United — key trading statistics (41 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (41 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 49% versus Ratchaburi 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 58% | Ratchaburi 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.48 xG and Ratchaburi 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.307 / defence 0.756 | Ratchaburi attack 1.014 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.114. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Buriram United games / 44 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 71% | Draw 19% | Ratchaburi 9%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Ratchaburi 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Buriram United 50% | Ratchaburi 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 71% | Draw 19% | Ratchaburi 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 54% | xG Buriram United 2.48 / Ratchaburi 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.307 / def 0.756 | Ratchaburi attack 1.014 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ratchaburi xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Buriram United 6 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 71% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Buriram United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Record (6 meetings): Buriram United 4W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.01x) against Buriram United's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 41/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
71%
1.40
19%
5.22
9%
10.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.33
0.85
Ratchaburi xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
10.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
8%
11.92
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
1%
126.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.85 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Buriram United's recent record stands at 28W 12D 1L from 41 games, a 2.34 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 16L across 41 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 14W 4D 0L from 18 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.51 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 28W 12D 1L in their last 41 games (2.34 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Buriram United's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.56 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Buriram United
3
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 6, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 50%, Ratchaburi 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Buriram United) and 33% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Buriram United's recent matches and 39% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Buriram United's recent games and 33% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Ratchaburi 6-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.48 xG and Ratchaburi 0.85 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.31 / defence 0.76 against Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 41/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 71% | Draw 19% | Ratchaburi 9%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 58%, Ratchaburi 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (41 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (41 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.94 average — above their attacking norm. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.