Buriram United 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Buriram United welcome Port FC to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 8W 2D 0L at Chang Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Port FC — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Buriram United have won 3, Port FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 56% and Port FC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 61% | Port FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.85 xG and Port FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.400 / defence 0.870 | Port FC attack 1.380 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.165. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Buriram United games / 57 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 47% | Draw 25% | Port FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 3.57. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 50% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 47% | Draw 25% | Port FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Buriram United 1.85 / Port FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.400 / def 0.870 | Port FC attack 1.380 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Port FC xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Port FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Buriram United 1 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Port FC part of?
Buriram United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 47% chance of winning, Port FC a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Buriram United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Buriram United 3W | Draws 0 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Port FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.40) and Port FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
47%
2.12
25%
4.06
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.25
1.40
Port FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
4%
22.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.40 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.39 PPG on a 41W 13D 3L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 29W 17D 11L from 57 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.54 PPG from 28 outings (22W 5D 1L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 10W 12D 6L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.02 scored and 1.26 conceded. Port FC's attacking output running into Buriram United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 72%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 41W 13D 3L in their last 57 games (2.39 PPG), while Port FC have gone 29W 17D 11L in their last 57 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Port FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.54 PPG; Port FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Port FC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Buriram United
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 50%, Port FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Buriram United and 61% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Buriram United's games and 75% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Buriram United's matches and 61% of Port FC's.
Do Buriram United and Port FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Port FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United and Port FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United and Port FC finished level at 1-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.85 xG and Port FC 1.40 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.40 / defence 0.87 against Port FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 47% | Draw 25% | Port FC 28%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 61%, Port FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.