Ayutthaya FC 1-0 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC meet at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ayutthaya FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 1W 4D 4L from 9 home games — 0.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.78 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Rayong FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ayutthaya FC register both teams scoring in 89% of relevant games, Rayong FC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ayutthaya FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ayutthaya FC half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 72% and Rayong FC 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 56% | Rayong FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.12 xG and Rayong FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.766 / defence 1.315 | Rayong FC attack 1.213 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.074. Ayutthaya FC's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayong FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Ayutthaya FC games / 47 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 24% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Rayong FC 1.96. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayong FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 89% | Rayong FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 24% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.12 / Rayong FC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.766 / def 1.315 | Rayong FC attack 1.213 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Rayong FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Ayutthaya FC 1 - 0 Rayong FC.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 24% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 0W | Draws 1 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Rayong FC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (1.21x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 18/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
24%
4.09
25%
4.05
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.71
Rayong FC xG
4.09
24%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
4%
22.64
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.71 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ayutthaya FC come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 7D 6L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rayong FC sit at 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Ayutthaya FC against 1.50 for Rayong FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ayutthaya FC's home form reads 1W 4D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Rayong FC have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.72 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 78%.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 7W 6D 5L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Rayong FC's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.78 PPG; Rayong FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
1
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Rayong FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-0 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC?
Ayutthaya FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 89% for Ayutthaya FC, 89% for Rayong FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ayutthaya FC) and 56% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 89% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 56% of Rayong FC's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Rayong FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ayutthaya FC beat Rayong FC 1-0 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.12 xG and Rayong FC 1.71 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayong FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.31 against Rayong FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.91, drawn from 18/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 24% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 51%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Ayutthaya FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 56%, Rayong FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Rayong FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.22 PPG, Rayong FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.