Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Ayutthaya FC take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ayutthaya Province Stadium plays host to Ayutthaya FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ayutthaya FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Ayutthaya FC's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ayutthaya FC 1W, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 62% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 46% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.11 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.629 / defence 1.284 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.747 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.145. Ayutthaya FC's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Ayutthaya FC games / 53 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 33% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ayutthaya FC 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 33% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.11 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.629 / def 1.284 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.747 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ayutthaya FC 0 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 33% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.75x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 24/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.93
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.10
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.10 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 8W 8D 8L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 3W 5D 16L from 24 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ayutthaya FC are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L). That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 2D 9L from 12 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.62 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 5D 16L in their last 24 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ayutthaya FC 67%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ayutthaya FC) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ayutthaya FC's recent matches and 42% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Ayutthaya FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Ayutthaya FC 0-1 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.11 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.28 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 33% | Draw 34% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 46%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ayutthaya FC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.