Yverdon Sport 2-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yverdon Sport face Lausanne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Yverdon Sport welcome Lausanne to Stade Municipal in Super League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Yverdon Sport — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Yverdon Sport have posted 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Lausanne have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Lausanne have posted 1W 1D 4L from their last 6 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Yverdon Sport at 1.20 PPG versus Lausanne's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 67% of Yverdon Sport's games and 100% of Lausanne's (from Yverdon Sport's last 6 home games and Lausanne's last 6 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Yverdon Sport, 0 for Lausanne and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Yverdon Sport 2–1 Lausanne — a Yverdon Sport win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lausanne in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 77% and Lausanne 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Yverdon Sport 62% | Lausanne 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.64 xG and Lausanne 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.888 / defence 1.109 | Lausanne attack 0.892 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.358. Data: built from Yverdon Sport's last 13 games and Lausanne's last 13.
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 29%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.37 | Draw 3.48 | Lausanne 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yverdon Sport are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Yverdon Sport's last 6 home games and Lausanne's last 6 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Yverdon Sport 67% (last 6 home games) | Lausanne 100% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Yverdon Sport 1.64 / Lausanne 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.888 / def 1.109 | Lausanne attack 0.892 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lausanne xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Yverdon Sport 2 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (matchday 14) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 42% chance of winning, Lausanne a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Lausanne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Yverdon Sport's last 13 games and Lausanne's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.48
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.98
1.34
Lausanne xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.34 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Lausanne's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.23 PPG, Lausanne on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 6 home games (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lausanne have gone 1W 1D 4L from their last 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Lausanne in 85%.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
Yverdon Sport (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Lausanne away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.83 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Lausanne have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won Yverdon Sport 0-3 Lausanne.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Yverdon Sport have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yverdon Sport at 67%, Lausanne at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Yverdon Sport and 100% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Yverdon Sport and Lausanne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yverdon Sport's games and 100% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 100% of Lausanne's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 67% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yverdon Sport and Lausanne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport and Lausanne finished level at 2-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.64 xG and Lausanne 1.34 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Lausanne attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 29%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 62%, Lausanne 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.23 PPG, Lausanne 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.