Yverdon Sport 2-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Yverdon Sport welcome Lausanne to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Yverdon Sport — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 3W 2D 1L at Stade Municipal — 1.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 1D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Yverdon Sport at 1.20 PPG versus Lausanne's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Yverdon Sport register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Lausanne in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Yverdon Sport have won 1, Lausanne 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lausanne in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 77% and Lausanne 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Yverdon Sport 62% | Lausanne 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.64 xG and Lausanne 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.888 / defence 1.109 | Lausanne attack 0.892 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.358. Data: 13 Yverdon Sport games / 13 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 29%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Lausanne 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yverdon Sport are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 67% | Lausanne 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.64 / Lausanne 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.888 / def 1.109 | Lausanne attack 0.892 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lausanne xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Yverdon Sport 2 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 42% chance of winning, Lausanne a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
Record (1 meetings): Yverdon Sport 1W | Draws 0 | Lausanne 0W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Lausanne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.48
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.98
1.34
Lausanne xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.34 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.23 PPG, Lausanne on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lausanne have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Lausanne in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Lausanne away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.83 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lausanne have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yverdon Sport at 67%, Lausanne at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Yverdon Sport and 100% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yverdon Sport's games and 100% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 100% of Lausanne's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Lausanne tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yverdon Sport and Lausanne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport and Lausanne finished level at 2-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.64 xG and Lausanne 1.34 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Lausanne attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 29% | Lausanne 29%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 62%, Lausanne 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.23 PPG, Lausanne 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.