Lausanne 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Stade Lausanne-Ouchy travel to Stade de la Tuilière to take on Lausanne. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 13:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 games at Stade de la Tuilière this term (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have posted 2W 1D 4L from 7 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 1.20 PPG, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lausanne, 0 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lausanne trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 86% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 86% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 2.28 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.978 / defence 0.969 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.910 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.814 / away 1.455. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Lausanne games / 13 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 59% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 19%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Lausanne (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lausanne as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 71% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 59% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Lausanne 2.28 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.978 / def 0.969 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.910 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.814 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Lausanne 1 - 0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 59% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Record (1 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0W.
What form are Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in?
Lausanne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.98x the league average against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.57
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.56
1.28
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
10%
9.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
2%
50.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.28 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne's recent record stands at 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 7L across 14 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.14 PPG, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.43 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
Lausanne's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.67 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when Lausanne won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lausanne
2
Draws
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
From 4 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 2, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0-4 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 67%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Lausanne and 83% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lausanne's games and 67% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Lausanne's matches and 83% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do Lausanne and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 2.28 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.28 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 59% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 19%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 82% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 86%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.14 PPG, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.