Yverdon Sport 0-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yverdon Sport face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Basel 1893 make the trip to Stade Municipal to face Yverdon Sport in Super League (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Yverdon Sport (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Yverdon Sport have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Basel 1893's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, FC Basel 1893 have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.70 for FC Basel 1893. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Yverdon Sport's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) — Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Basel 1893 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Yverdon Sport, 1 for FC Basel 1893 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Yverdon Sport 1–2 FC Basel 1893 — a FC Basel 1893 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 71% and FC Basel 1893 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 71% | FC Basel 1893 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.67 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.093 / defence 1.128 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.998 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.231. Data: built from Yverdon Sport's last 24 games and FC Basel 1893's last 60.
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 44% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 32%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.25 | Draw 4.21 | FC Basel 1893 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Yverdon Sport's last 10 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Yverdon Sport 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 44% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Yverdon Sport 1.67 / FC Basel 1893 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.093 / def 1.128 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.998 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC Basel 1893 xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 44% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yverdon Sport's attack rating (1.09) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.00x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Yverdon Sport's last 24 games and FC Basel 1893's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
44%
2.25
24%
4.21
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.06
1.39
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.39 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 6D 10L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (8W 4D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.17 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 7W 3D 2L across their last 12 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 12 away games (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.21 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Yverdon Sport (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Basel 1893 won FC Basel 1893 5-0 Yverdon Sport on 21 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Yverdon Sport have won 1, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: FC Basel 1893 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Yverdon Sport, 67% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Yverdon Sport and 75% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Yverdon Sport vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Yverdon Sport's games and 67% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 75% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 83% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat Yverdon Sport 0-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.67 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.39 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Yverdon Sport fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 44% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 32%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC Basel 1893 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 71%, FC Basel 1893 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.25 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.