FC Winterthur 2-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Winterthur at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Yverdon Sport travel to Stadion Schützenwiese to take on FC Winterthur in Super League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Winterthur — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Winterthur's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Yverdon Sport have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
FC Winterthur are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from FC Winterthur's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for FC Winterthur, 0 for Yverdon Sport and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended FC Winterthur 1–1 Yverdon Sport — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Winterthur in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Winterthur 88% and Yverdon Sport 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Winterthur 76% | Yverdon Sport 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Winterthur surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Yverdon Sport have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 2.39 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 1.116 / defence 1.280 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.758 / defence 1.507. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.190. Yverdon Sport's defence rating of 1.507 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Winterthur's projected output up. Yverdon Sport's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. FC Winterthur's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Yverdon Sport's projected output up. Data: built from FC Winterthur's last 61 games and Yverdon Sport's last 25.
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 65% | Draw 18% | Yverdon Sport 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 1.54 | Draw 5.45 | Yverdon Sport 5.93. The model has a clear lean to FC Winterthur (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.39 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Winterthur are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Winterthur's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Winterthur 90% (last 10 home games) | Yverdon Sport 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 65% | Draw 18% | Yverdon Sport 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG FC Winterthur 2.39 / Yverdon Sport 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 1.116 / def 1.280 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.758 / def 1.507 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: FC Winterthur (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Yverdon Sport xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport FAQs
What time does FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Winterthur 2 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 65% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Winterthur the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Winterthur's attack rating (1.12) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus FC Winterthur's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Winterthur's last 61 games and Yverdon Sport's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Winterthur Win
65%
1.54
18%
5.45
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
3.55
1.15
Yverdon Sport xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
9%
10.96
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
2%
64.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.15 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Winterthur come into this having played 25 games, going 9W 7D 9L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Winterthur on 1.36 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Winterthur's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across their last 12 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Yverdon Sport have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 12 away games (1W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Winterthur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.28 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 68%.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Winterthur (Home) vs Yverdon Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Winterthur
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport Form FAQs
What form are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 games (1.36 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC Winterthur's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 1.75 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Feb 2025, when Yverdon Sport won Yverdon Sport 3-0 FC Winterthur.
FC Winterthur's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Winterthur
4
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Winterthur have won 1, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: FC Winterthur 2-2 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Winterthur at 83%, Yverdon Sport at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Winterthur and 58% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of FC Winterthur's games and 75% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Winterthur's matches and 58% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do FC Winterthur and Yverdon Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC Winterthur's recent matches and 83% of Yverdon Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Winterthur edge out Yverdon Sport 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Winterthur beat Yverdon Sport 2-1 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 2.39 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.15 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 1.12 / defence 1.28 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.76 / defence 1.51, drawn from 61/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 65% | Draw 18% | Yverdon Sport 17%, with FC Winterthur to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 76%, Yverdon Sport 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 1.36 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Winterthur win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.