FC Vaduz vs FC Thun – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Vaduz at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Vaduz vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rheinpark Stadion plays host to FC Vaduz versus FC Thun in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Vaduz have collected 0.86 PPG across 7 Super League outings this season: 2W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.29 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.43 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Vaduz have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Vaduz at Rheinpark Stadion this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — FC Vaduz are significantly better at Rheinpark Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Thun (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Thun have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.86 for FC Vaduz, 0.80 for FC Thun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Vaduz register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, FC Thun in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Vaduz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
FC Thun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Vaduz 100% and FC Thun 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Vaduz 100% | FC Thun 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Vaduz 2.88 xG and FC Thun 2.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Vaduz attack 1.338 / defence 1.264 | FC Thun attack 1.319 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.724. FC Vaduz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 2.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — the away xG of 2.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 FC Vaduz games / 38 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Vaduz 42% | Draw 17% | FC Thun 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Vaduz 2.38 | Draw 5.88 | FC Thun 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 17% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 93% | BTTS probability 89% | Total xG 5.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 93% — a total xG of 5.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 89% reflects that both xG figures (2.88 / 2.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Vaduz as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 41% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 5.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 93% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 89% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Vaduz 100% | FC Thun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 41% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Vaduz vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rheinpark Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Vaduz 42% | Draw 17% | FC Thun 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 93% | BTTS 89% | xG FC Vaduz 2.88 / FC Thun 2.87 • Poisson strength factors: FC Vaduz attack 1.338 / def 1.264 | FC Thun attack 1.319 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.892 / away 1.724 • Poisson stance: FC Vaduz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
FC Vaduz xG
Expected Goals
2.87
FC Thun xG
89%
BTTS
98%
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
83%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Vaduz vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Vaduz vs FC Thun is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Rheinpark Stadion.
Where is FC Vaduz vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Rheinpark Stadion.
What competition is FC Vaduz vs FC Thun part of?
FC Vaduz vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Vaduz a 42% chance of winning, FC Thun a 41% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Vaduz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 89% probability that both FC Vaduz and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC Vaduz vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 93%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Vaduz and FC Thun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Vaduz and FC Thun in?
FC Vaduz (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 2.43 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. FC Thun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Vaduz's attack rating (1.34) and FC Thun's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.32x) against FC Vaduz's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.87.
These ratings are built from 7/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 5.4%. Close behind: 3-2 (5.2%), 2-3 (5.2%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 16% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Vaduz Win
42%
2.40
17%
5.82
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
5.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 3
5.2%
Away win
3 – 2
5.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
FC Vaduz xG
Total xG
5.76
2.87
FC Thun xG
2.40
42%
Home win
5.82
17%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
93%
Over 2.5
1.08
7%
Under 2.5
14.29
83%
Over 3.5
1.20
17%
Under 3.5
5.88
68%
Over 4.5
1.47
32%
Under 4.5
3.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
89%
BTTS Yes
1.12
11%
BTTS No
9.22
Clean Sheet
6%
17.69
6%
17.90
Win to Nil
2%
42.52
2%
43.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 5.4%.
How many goals are FC Vaduz and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for FC Vaduz and 2.87 for FC Thun, a combined total of 5.76.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Vaduz's recent record stands at 2W 0D 5L from 7 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Vaduz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Thun, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 3L across 7 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for FC Vaduz against 1.14 for FC Thun. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Vaduz have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — FC Vaduz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Thun's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.14 PPG overall record — FC Thun travel well.
Attack vs Defence
FC Vaduz are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 1.86 scored and 3.29 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Vaduz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC Thun in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Vaduz
Early Season
FC Thun
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Vaduz and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Vaduz have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Vaduz at home or FC Thun away?
FC Vaduz's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Vaduz at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for FC Vaduz, 100% for FC Thun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Vaduz and 100% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Vaduz home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Vaduz play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Vaduz's games and 100% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Vaduz vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Vaduz's matches and 100% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Vaduz and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC Vaduz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.