FC Thun 3-1 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Servette FC at 46%, yet in-form FC Thun provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Thun vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stockhorn Arena plays host to FC Thun versus Servette FC in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 18 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Thun have collected 2.00 PPG across 8 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 2L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun's home record at Stockhorn Arena: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Super League appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stockhorn Arena this season.
Servette FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in FC Thun's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Thun have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Servette FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
FC Thun half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 88% and Servette FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 88% | Servette FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.33 xG and Servette FC 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.843 / defence 1.181 | Servette FC attack 1.001 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.753 / away 1.494. Data: 8 FC Thun games / 41 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 27% | Draw 27% | Servette FC 46%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Servette FC 2.17. Servette FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Servette FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Thun (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 100% | Servette FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 27% | Draw 27% | Servette FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Thun 1.33 / Servette FC 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.843 / def 1.181 | Servette FC attack 1.001 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.753 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Servette FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs Servette FC kick off?
FC Thun vs Servette FC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs Servette FC?
FC Thun 3 - 1 Servette FC.
Where is FC Thun vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs Servette FC part of?
FC Thun vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 27% chance of winning, Servette FC a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Thun and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Servette FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Thun and Servette FC in?
FC Thun (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Servette FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.84) and Servette FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (1.00x) against FC Thun's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 8/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
27%
3.67
27%
3.71
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.10
1.77
Servette FC xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
5%
21.49
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC Thun and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.77 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Thun's recent record stands at 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Servette FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 4L across 8 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Thun by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Servette FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Thun have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Servette FC's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Thun are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; Servette FC in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and Servette FC in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or Servette FC away?
FC Thun's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.33 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Thun go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
3
FC Thun
0
Draws
0
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Servette FC?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 3, Servette FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Servette FC 1-3 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and Servette FC?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for FC Thun, 67% for Servette FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Thun and 67% for Servette FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Servette FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Thun's games and 67% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Thun's matches and 67% of Servette FC's.
Do FC Thun and Servette FC tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Thun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Servette FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Servette FC 3-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.33 xG and Servette FC 1.77 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Servette FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 8/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 27% | Draw 27% | Servette FC 46%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Thun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 88%, Servette FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Servette FC's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Servette FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.