Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Oddevold to Varberg Energi Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 23 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Varberg Energi Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 xG and Oddevold 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.798 / defence 1.347 | Oddevold attack 0.842 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.967. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 8 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 31%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Oddevold 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 / Oddevold 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.798 / def 1.347 | Oddevold attack 0.842 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Oddevold xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Varbergs BoIS FC 2 - 1 Oddevold.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 38% chance of winning, Oddevold a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.80) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.20
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Oddevold xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.10 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
2
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Oddevold have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Oddevold 2-4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Oddevold 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Oddevold 2-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 xG and Oddevold 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.35 against Oddevold attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 31%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.