Degerfors IF 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Degerfors IF face Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Varbergs BoIS FC travel to Stora Valla to take on Degerfors IF in Superettan (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 7D 0L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 6D 0L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Degerfors IF 1.60 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Degerfors IF's games and 70% of Varbergs BoIS FC's (from Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Degerfors IF have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC 1, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Degerfors IF 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 2.25 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.254 / defence 1.201 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.830 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.002. Degerfors IF carry an above-average attack rating of 1.254 — their 2.25 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 1.343 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Degerfors IF's projected output up. Degerfors IF's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output up. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 9 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 9.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 66% | Draw 19% | Varbergs BoIS FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.52 | Draw 5.29 | Varbergs BoIS FC 6.47. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 home games) | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, matchday 10 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 66% | Draw 19% | Varbergs BoIS FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Degerfors IF 2.25 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.254 / def 1.201 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.830 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC FAQs
What time does Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 28 May 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Superettan fixture (matchday 10) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 66% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 1.25x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Degerfors IF's last 9 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.29
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.25
1.00
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
11%
9.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
2%
61.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.00 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (9W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.03 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Degerfors IF's home form reads 5W 6D 4L across their last 15 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 15 away games (4W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF (Home) vs Varbergs BoIS FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
❓ Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC Form FAQs
What form are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.40 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2021. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 5 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
7
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Degerfors IF have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2024: Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Degerfors IF) and 67% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 40% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Degerfors IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Degerfors IF's matches and 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 87% of Varbergs BoIS FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 10, as Degerfors IF and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 2.25 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.00 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.25 / defence 1.20 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 66% | Draw 19% | Varbergs BoIS FC 15%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.03 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.