Trelleborg 0-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Helsingborg meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 27 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Vångavallen — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Helsingborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Helsingborg have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Trelleborg's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Helsingborg's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Trelleborg, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Helsingborg — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Trelleborg winning.
The historical record gives Trelleborg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 50% versus Helsingborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 50% | Helsingborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.58 xG and Helsingborg 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.007 / defence 1.006 | Helsingborg attack 1.011 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.363. Data: 39 Trelleborg games / 39 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 42% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Helsingborg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: Trelleborg 50% | Helsingborg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 42% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Trelleborg 1.58 / Helsingborg 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.007 / def 1.006 | Helsingborg attack 1.011 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Helsingborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Helsingborg kick off?
Trelleborg vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 27 May 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Trelleborg 0 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Trelleborg vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Helsingborg part of?
Trelleborg vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 42% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Trelleborg and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Helsingborg?
Record (6 meetings): Trelleborg 3W | Draws 3 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Helsingborg in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.01x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (1.01x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.11
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.96
1.39
Helsingborg xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.39 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 22W 15D 23L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 21W 17D 22L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.33 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Trelleborg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Helsingborg away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.53 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 0-3 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
4
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Helsingborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, Helsingborg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Helsingborg 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Helsingborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 47%, Helsingborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trelleborg) and 53% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Helsingborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 50% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trelleborg's recent games and 53% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trelleborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Helsingborg finished level at 0-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.58 xG and Helsingborg 1.39 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Helsingborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Helsingborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 42% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 34%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 50%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.35 PPG, Helsingborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.