Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours GIF Sundsvall (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trelleborg face GIF Sundsvall.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Vångavallen this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vångavallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
GIF Sundsvall arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Trelleborg 2W, GIF Sundsvall 4W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2025, ended 2–4 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 38% versus GIF Sundsvall 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 44% | GIF Sundsvall 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.85 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.618 / defence 1.018 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.934 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.177. Trelleborg's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Trelleborg games / 55 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 28% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 42%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | GIF Sundsvall 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 20% | GIF Sundsvall 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 28% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Trelleborg 0.85 / GIF Sundsvall 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.618 / def 1.018 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.934 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Trelleborg 2 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 28% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (7 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 4W.
What form are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.62) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.93x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
28%
3.63
31%
3.24
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
1.97
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.6 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.12 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 11D 28L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 1.36 PPG from 55 outings (21W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Trelleborg against 1.36 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 9W 8D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 1.37 points per game from 27 outings (11W 4D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.16 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 games (1.07 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
GIF Sundsvall's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.30 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
1
Draws
4
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 37%, GIF Sundsvall 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Trelleborg) and 44% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 33%; Trelleborg have failed to score in 37% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 37% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Trelleborg's recent games and 44% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.85 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Trelleborg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.62 / defence 1.02 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 28% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 42%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 44%, GIF Sundsvall 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.07 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.