Ostersunds FK 3-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Ostersunds FK welcome Orebro SK to Jamtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jamtkraft Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jamtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orebro SK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Orebro SK's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Orebro SK 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 62% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.86 xG and Orebro SK 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.008 / defence 1.100 | Orebro SK attack 1.080 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.291. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Ostersunds FK games / 39 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 32%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Orebro SK 3.12. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 70% | Orebro SK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.86 / Orebro SK 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.008 / def 1.100 | Orebro SK attack 1.080 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Orebro SK xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Ostersunds FK 3 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 46% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
Record (6 meetings): Ostersunds FK 2W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.01x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
46%
2.20
22%
4.47
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.39
1.53
Orebro SK xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
5%
19.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.53 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 20W 18D 22L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 18W 19D 23L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.30 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (14W 10D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 4W 8D 18L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.33 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Orebro SK away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.73 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ostersunds FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 5, Orebro SK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Orebro SK 0-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ostersunds FK at 73%, Orebro SK at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Ostersunds FK and 73% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ostersunds FK's games and 63% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 73% of Orebro SK's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Orebro SK 3-1 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.86 xG and Orebro SK 1.53 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Orebro SK attack 1.08 / defence 1.27, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 22% | Orebro SK 32%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG, Orebro SK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.