Ostersunds FK 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees IK brage travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
IK brage — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, IK brage have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 0.80 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour IK brage, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Ostersunds FK.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–2 with IK brage winning.
It is worth noting that IK brage have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
IK brage trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 61% versus IK brage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 49% | IK brage 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.16 xG and IK brage 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.911 / defence 1.000 | IK brage attack 0.742 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.177. Data: 59 Ostersunds FK games / 59 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 32% | IK brage 27%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | IK brage 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 32% | IK brage 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.16 / IK brage 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.911 / def 1.000 | IK brage attack 0.742 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.87
IK brage xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 41% chance of winning, IK brage a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
Record (5 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 0 | IK brage 4W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.12
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.03
0.87
IK brage xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.87 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 18W 19D 22L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
IK brage's form line: 23W 12D 24L from 59 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.24 PPG, IK brage on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.69 PPG from 29 outings (13W 10D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IK brage have gone 6W 7D 16L from 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.17 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 19D 22L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 12D 24L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IK brage away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.69 PPG; IK brage away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, IK brage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, IK brage have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when IK brage 2-4 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 72%, IK brage 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Ostersunds FK) and 34% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: IK brage in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Ostersunds FK's games and 38% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 34% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and IK brage tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, IK brage in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Ostersunds FK and IK brage drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.16 xG and IK brage 0.87 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against IK brage attack 0.74 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 32% | IK brage 27%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 49%, IK brage 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.24 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.