Orebro SK 0-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Oddevold (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Orebro SK face Oddevold.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Oddevold travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 July 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Oddevold have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Oddevold — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orebro SK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Oddevold in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orebro SK, 2 for Oddevold and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2026, ended 1–4 with Oddevold winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Oddevold in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orebro SK 64% and Oddevold 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 51% | Oddevold 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.28 xG and Oddevold 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.743 / defence 1.009 | Oddevold attack 1.187 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.460. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Orebro SK games / 45 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 28% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 48%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Oddevold 2.08. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oddevold are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 60% | Oddevold 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 28% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Orebro SK 1.28 / Oddevold 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.743 / def 1.009 | Oddevold attack 1.187 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Oddevold xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Oddevold kick off?
Orebro SK vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 July 2026 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is Orebro SK vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Oddevold part of?
Orebro SK vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 28% chance of winning, Oddevold a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Orebro SK and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
Record (5 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 3 | Oddevold 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Oddevold in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.74x the league average against Oddevold's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
28%
3.54
23%
4.26
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.03
1.75
Oddevold xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
5%
20.34
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.75 for Oddevold, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK come into this having played 45 games, going 8W 15D 22L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oddevold sit at 1.51 PPG from 45 outings (18W 14D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oddevold carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Orebro SK's home form reads 6W 8D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Oddevold have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (10W 8D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oddevold come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.56 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Oddevold in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Oddevold
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Oddevold in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 8W 15D 22L in their last 45 games (0.87 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 18W 14D 13L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Oddevold away?
Oddevold's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.18 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Oddevold in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Oddevold runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2026, when Oddevold won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
4
Draws
2
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
From 6 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, Oddevold have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Orebro SK 0-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 59%, Oddevold 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Orebro SK) and 50% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Oddevold in 41%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Oddevold?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Orebro SK's games and 54% of Oddevold's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Orebro SK's recent games and 50% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Oddevold tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Orebro SK and Oddevold drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.28 xG and Oddevold 1.75 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Oddevold landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.74 / defence 1.01 against Oddevold attack 1.19 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 28% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 48%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 51%, Oddevold 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oddevold's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oddevold arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Oddevold (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.