IK brage 0-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IK brage's home record at Domnarvsvallen: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 0.90 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: IK brage have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Ostersunds FK have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives IK brage a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 43% versus Ostersunds FK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 45% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.24 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.809 / defence 0.994 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.865 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.280. Data: 35 IK brage games / 35 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 39% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 33%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Ostersunds FK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 30% | Ostersunds FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 39% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG IK brage 1.24 / Ostersunds FK 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.809 / def 0.994 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.865 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: IK brage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
IK brage vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
IK brage 0 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK part of?
IK brage vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 39% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IK brage and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ostersunds FK?
Record (6 meetings): IK brage 4W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are IK brage and Ostersunds FK in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.57
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.34
1.10
Ostersunds FK xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IK brage and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for IK brage and 1.10 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 13D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (20W 18D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.37 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Ostersunds FK away?
IK brage's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.87 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.87 PPG.
Have IK brage or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Ostersunds FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 10 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
IK brage's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IK brage
2
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ostersunds FK?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 47%, Ostersunds FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 43% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IK brage's recent matches and 50% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 43% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat IK brage 0-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.24 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.10 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 39% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 33%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.