Falkenbergs FF 0-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IK brage at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees IK brage travel to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena to take on Falkenbergs FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 August 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Falkenbergs FF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's home record at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena: 3W 5D 0L from 8 Superettan appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Falkenbergs FF at 1.60 PPG versus IK brage's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Falkenbergs FF register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, IK brage in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, IK brage 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Falkenbergs FF in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
IK brage in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 35% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 53% versus IK brage 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 59% | IK brage 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.57 xG and IK brage 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.018 / defence 0.936 | IK brage attack 1.382 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.331. IK brage have an above-average attack strength of 1.382 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Falkenbergs FF games / 47 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 35% | Draw 23% | IK brage 41%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | IK brage 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 62% | IK brage 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 35% | Draw 23% | IK brage 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.57 / IK brage 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.018 / def 0.936 | IK brage attack 1.382 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: IK brage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.72
IK brage xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Falkenbergs FF 0 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 35% chance of winning, IK brage a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 2W | Draws 0 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and IK brage in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. IK brage (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Falkenbergs FF's attack at 1.02x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
35%
2.85
23%
4.26
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
3.29
1.72
IK brage xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.72 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Falkenbergs FF have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 6W 7D 4L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage's form line: 5W 7D 5L from 17 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Falkenbergs FF on 1.47 PPG, IK brage on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Falkenbergs FF have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (3W 5D 0L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.29 PPG overall record — IK brage travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.65 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 65%.
Defensively: Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and IK brage in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while IK brage have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.75 PPG; IK brage away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Falkenbergs FF or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Falkenbergs FF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, IK brage in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Falkenbergs FF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Falkenbergs FF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and IK brage?
From 6 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 4, IK brage have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Falkenbergs FF 4-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and IK brage?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 62%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Falkenbergs FF) and 50% (IK brage). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; IK brage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Falkenbergs FF's games and 50% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 50% of IK brage's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and IK brage tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IK brage in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Falkenbergs FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Falkenbergs FF 0-1 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.57 xG and IK brage 1.72 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Falkenbergs FF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against IK brage attack 1.38 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 35% | Draw 23% | IK brage 41%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 59%, IK brage 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
IK brage's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 1.47 PPG, IK brage 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.