Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm meet at Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Varbergs BoIS FC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Varberg Energi Arena, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Varberg Energi Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Varberg Energi Arena than their overall form suggests.
AIK Stockholm's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Varbergs BoIS FC, 2 for AIK Stockholm and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 60% versus AIK Stockholm 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 54% | AIK Stockholm 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.02 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.839 / defence 0.752 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.743 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.139. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 57 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 44% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 22%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | AIK Stockholm 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — AIK Stockholm's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 40% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 44% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.02 / AIK Stockholm 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.839 / def 0.752 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.743 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.64
AIK Stockholm xG
30%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 44% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm?
Record (3 meetings): Varbergs BoIS FC 0W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 0.84x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.74x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
44%
2.28
34%
2.97
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
1.65
0.64
AIK Stockholm xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.64 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 17D 22L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.56 PPG from 57 outings (25W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.56 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 12W 8D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (7W 10D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.16 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 18W 17D 22L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.57 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
AIK Stockholm have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AIK Stockholm won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2023, when AIK Stockholm 3-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 64%, AIK Stockholm 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 36% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 43% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 36% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.02 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.64 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.75 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.74 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 44% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 22%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 54%, AIK Stockholm 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.