Sirius 7-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sirius face Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sirius host Varbergs BoIS FC at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sirius stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sirius's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 0.60 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Sirius, 2 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Apr 2023, ended Sirius 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 46% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 52% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.67 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.024 / defence 1.212 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.920 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.260. Sirius's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output up. Data: built from Sirius's last 52 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Sirius 44% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.28 | Draw 4.21 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sirius's last 10 home games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sirius 60% (last 10 home games) | Varbergs BoIS FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 23 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 44% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Sirius 1.67 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.024 / def 1.212 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.920 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Sirius (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC FAQs
What time does Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sirius 7 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 44% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.02x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sirius's last 52 games and Varbergs BoIS FC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.21
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.08
1.41
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sirius and 1.41 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 14W 13D 25L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 12W 12D 28L from 52 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.06 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 3D 14L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 6W 4D 16L from their last 26 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Sirius (Home) vs Varbergs BoIS FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sirius
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC Form FAQs
What form are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 14W 13D 25L in their last 52 games (1.06 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 12W 12D 28L in their last 52 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Sirius's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.15 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Sirius or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2020. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 16 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2023, when Sirius won Sirius 7-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Sirius's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sirius have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2023: Sirius 7-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 46%, Varbergs BoIS FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sirius) and 62% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 27% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sirius's recent matches and 58% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sirius's matches and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sirius's recent matches and 85% of Varbergs BoIS FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Varbergs BoIS FC 7-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.67 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 5.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 44% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 52%, Varbergs BoIS FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.06 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.