IFK Goteborg 1-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IFK Goteborg welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, IFK Goteborg stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Goteborg at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
IF Brommapojkarna — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
IFK Goteborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for IFK Goteborg, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended IFK Goteborg 0–0 IF Brommapojkarna — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 46% versus IF Brommapojkarna 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 46% | IF Brommapojkarna 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 2.31 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.101 / defence 0.902 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.089 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.260. IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating of 1.401 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Goteborg's projected output up. Data: built from IFK Goteborg's last 52 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 22.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 61% | Draw 19% | IF Brommapojkarna 19%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.63 | Draw 5.21 | IF Brommapojkarna 5.17. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.31 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IFK Goteborg's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IFK Goteborg 50% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 23 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 61% | Draw 19% | IF Brommapojkarna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG IFK Goteborg 2.31 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.101 / def 0.902 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.089 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
IF Brommapojkarna xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 61% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 1.10x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Goteborg's last 52 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
61%
1.63
19%
5.21
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.55
1.24
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
10%
10.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
2%
52.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.24 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 11D 22L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 27W 7D 18L from 52 games, 1.69 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.31 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 26 home games (11W 6D 9L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 11W 4D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.81 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 63%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IFK Goteborg (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 19W 11D 22L in their last 52 games (1.31 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 27W 7D 18L in their last 52 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: IFK Goteborg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2024, when IFK Goteborg won IF Brommapojkarna 0-3 IFK Goteborg.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Goteborg have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (IFK Goteborg) and 62% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IFK Goteborg's games and 62% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 62% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 85% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out IF Brommapojkarna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 2.31 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.24 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.09 / defence 1.40, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 61% | Draw 19% | IF Brommapojkarna 19%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 46%, IF Brommapojkarna 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.31 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.