Ostersunds FK 1-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Ostersunds FK take on AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 23 as Ostersunds FK welcome AIK Stockholm to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 October 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK at Jämtkraft Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jämtkraft Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Ostersunds FK have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 1, AIK Stockholm 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2020, ended 1–0 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus AIK Stockholm 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ostersunds FK 33% | AIK Stockholm 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 0.95 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.737 / defence 1.021 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.601 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.358. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Ostersunds FK games / 21 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 38% | AIK Stockholm 28%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | AIK Stockholm 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | AIK Stockholm 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Oct 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 38% | AIK Stockholm 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Ostersunds FK 0.95 / AIK Stockholm 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.737 / def 1.021 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.601 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.83
AIK Stockholm xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 October 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 34% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
38%
2.64
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
1.78
0.83
AIK Stockholm xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 14.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.83 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 7W 9D 5L from 21 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 9L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.43 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 0.95 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 7W 9D 5L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.00 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AIK Stockholm have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
3
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, AIK Stockholm have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when AIK Stockholm 3-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, AIK Stockholm 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Ostersunds FK and 30% for AIK Stockholm.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 40%; Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 40% of games; AIK Stockholm in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 30% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 30% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Ostersunds FK 1-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 0.95 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.83 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.74 / defence 1.02 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.60 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 34% | Draw 38% | AIK Stockholm 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 33%, AIK Stockholm 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.43 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.