Mjallby AIF 3-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 38%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan (matchday 2). Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
IFK Norrkoping's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Mjallby AIF's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, IFK Norrkoping edge it 2 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Mjallby AIF 2–0 IFK Norrkoping — a Mjallby AIF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 43% versus IFK Norrkoping 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 38% | IFK Norrkoping 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mjallby AIF surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while IFK Norrkoping have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.48 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.959 / defence 0.987 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.987 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.547. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 31 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 38%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.68 | Draw 4.11 | IFK Norrkoping 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mjallby AIF's last 10 home games and IFK Norrkoping's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 50% (last 10 home games) | IFK Norrkoping 90% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Mjallby AIF 31 games, IFK Norrkoping 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 2 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Mjallby AIF 1.48 / IFK Norrkoping 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.959 / def 0.987 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.987 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.50
IFK Norrkoping xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping FAQs
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 37% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.99x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from Mjallby AIF's last 31 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.11
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.98
1.50
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.50 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 23W 15D 22L from 60 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 25L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.25 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 9W 9D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
Mjallby AIF (Home) vs IFK Norrkoping (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping Form FAQs
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.20 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 26 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won Mjallby AIF 3-0 IFK Norrkoping on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2025: Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Mjallby AIF, 70% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 60% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 70% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 60% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 83% of IFK Norrkoping's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Norrkoping 3-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.48 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.50 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 38%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 38%, IFK Norrkoping 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.