Kalmar FF 1-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 8 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sirius (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Kalmar FF, 2.20 for Sirius — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Kalmar FF 1W, Sirius 1W, 5D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 45% versus Sirius 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 43% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.39 xG and Sirius 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.968 / defence 0.968 | Sirius attack 1.042 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.356. Data: 31 Kalmar FF games / 31 Sirius games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 26% | Sirius 37%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Sirius 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 40% | Sirius 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 26% | Sirius 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Kalmar FF 1.39 / Sirius 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.968 / def 0.968 | Sirius attack 1.042 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sirius xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Sirius kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 April 2024 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Kalmar FF 1 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Sirius part of?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 38% chance of winning, Sirius a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kalmar FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Record (7 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 5 | Sirius 1W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.04x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.92
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.75
1.37
Sirius xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.37 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 28W 12D 20L from 60 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 25L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.28 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 18W 5D 7L from 30 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 8W 11D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Sirius away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.97 PPG; Sirius away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
5
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Sirius have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 37%, Sirius 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Kalmar FF) and 53% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 47% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 53% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Kalmar FF 1-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.39 xG and Sirius 1.37 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Sirius attack 1.04 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 26% | Sirius 37%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 43%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.60 PPG, Sirius 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.